CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-24T01:48:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Oct 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. The largest flare of the period came from
Region 1877 (S12W03, Dkc/beta-gamma). An impulsive M9/1n (R2 -
Moderate on the NOAA Scale) erupted at approximately 24/0030 UTC and was
associated with Types II (est. speed 1321 km/s) and IV radio emissions.
A faint, full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately
24/0148 UTC, associated with the M9 event. Preliminary Enlil model
output indicated potential impacts at Earth early on 28 October. Region
1877 continued to increase in area, but lost its delta configuration
during the past 12 hours. Region 1875 (N08W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to be the largest and most active region on the disk producing
multiple C-class flares as well as several impulsive M-class (R1 - Minor
on the NOAA Scale) flares during the period. These included an M3 at
24/0016 UTC, an M2 at 24/1009 UTC, and another M3 at 24/1033 UTC with
associated Type IV radio emissions. As with 1877, this region showed
growth in areal coverage, primarily in the trailer portion. This region
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, mainly in the
intermediate spots. New Region 1881 (S22E37, Bxo/beta) evolved on the
disk while Region 1882 (S08E73, Dso/beta) rotated onto the disk and
produced a C2 x-ray event at 24/1707 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at M-class levels (NOAA Scale R1-R2
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (NOAA Scale R3
Strong) for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels.The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate for a
majority of the next three days (25 - 27 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain below alert threshold levels for the
next three days (25 - 27 Oct). However, as Regions 1875 and 1877 move
into a more favorable location, an increasing chance for an S1-minor
proton event exists.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds ranged from a maximum of approximately 360 km/s to a
minimum of just under 300 km/s as weak coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS) effects continued to wane. IMF Bt remained steady near 5 to 7
nT over the period. IMF Bz remained mostly positive with only very brief
intermittent negative decreases to as low as -3 nT. IMF Phi remained in
a primarily negative (toward) orientation for the majority of the
period, with brief transitions to positive (away) early in the period.
Ace EPAM indicated a slight enhancement across a few of the lower energy
channels at the time of the brief sector change but decayed to
background levels later in the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at mostly nominal conditions
through the period (25 - 27 Oct). A combined arrival of the northern
flank of two weak CMEs from 20 Oct along with the southern flank of a
third CME event from 22 Oct is expected during the early hours of day
one (25 Oct). Wind speeds are not expected to increase substantially
from these relatively slow glancing blow transients.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
active conditions with isolated minor storm (NOAA Scale G1-Minor)
periods on day one (25 Oct) due to the anticipated onset of effects from
three glancing blow CMEs observed leaving the Sun between 20 and 22 Oct.
Day two (26 Oct) will begin with continued CME effects followed by a
recovery to quiet to unsettled levels late that day and into day three
(27 Oct) as conditions wane prior to the arrival of the M9 CME observed
on 24 Oct, expected to arrive outside of the forecast period.
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